On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 1-7 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-5 in comp-fd-DED. The live ratings are 1528 and 1593, giving 36.0% / 28.0% / 36.0%.
72.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Final score: 1-0. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 9.0% — not a strong call. Attack/defence pairs: 1.19/1.06 and 1.32/0.94. Twente holds both halves of the profile — 1.32 against 1.19 for scoring, 0.94 against 1.06 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Only 0.0 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. Heerenveen carries the largest share, 36.0%. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +28 and +93. The ratings draw on 34 and 34 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The xG line reads 1.65 to 1.89. Top to bottom the spread is only 8.0 points. Twente's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 50.0%. As a single number the model says 1-1.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Heerenveen edged past Twente 1-0 on 9 August 2026. Luca Oyen opened the scoring 52 minutes into the game for Heerenveen, set up by Jacob Trenskow, to make it 1-0. Dirk Proper (75') and Luca Oyen (90') were booked. Luca Oyen scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Twente slightly the stronger side, by 65 rating points over Heerenveen, even though it was Heerenveen who won this one. Twente are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form. Heerenveen won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.