On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 2-2 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-DED. The live ratings are 1503 and 1566, giving 36.4% / 27.9% / 35.7%.
The model's preferred outcome is Groningen at 36.4%. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.9%. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. 63 points of rating separation. Only 0.7 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. The match finished 2-1. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Utrecht's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 49.7%. Win-or-lose totals 72.1%; the draw takes the rest. Utrecht is ahead on each half — 1.21 to 1.09 in attack, 0.91 to 0.98 in defence. Scorelines above 8%: 3. The away side is rated higher. On expected goals the model has it 1.47 against 1.60. Attack/defence pairs: 1.09/0.98 and 1.21/0.91. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +3 and +66. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 34 and 34 rated matches respectively. A 8.5-point range covers every outcome here.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Groningen edged past Utrecht 2-1 on 9 August 2026. Brynjolfur Darri Willumsson opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Groningen to make it 1-0. Thom van Bergen added to the tally 48 minutes into the game for Groningen, set up by Jorg Schreuders, to make it 2-0. Adrian Blake pulled one back 79 minutes into the game for Utrecht, set up by Davy van den Berg, to make it 1-2. Dani de Wit (84') and Joris van Overeem (88') were booked. Adrian Blake scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Utrecht slightly the stronger side, by 63 rating points over Groningen, even though it was Groningen who won this one.