Flamengo 3–1 Grêmio: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

It landed.

Current ratings

1732against1432

A 300-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Recorded ahead of kickoff

Goal expectation

Flamengo2.39

Grêmio0.68

Expected share of the points

01
The head-to-head counts 31 recorded meetings since 2010: 11 to Flamengo, 13 to Grêmio, 7 drawn, 43-40 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-0 in Brasileirão Série A. The present numbers are 1732 against 1432, and the model turns that into 81.5% / 15.2% / 3.3%.
02
Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 2-0. Flamengo holds a 66.3-point edge on the next outcome. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. xG: 2.39 to 0.68. Flat distribution — 2-0 tops it at just 13.3%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +232 and -68. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 40 and 36 rated matches respectively. By expected share of the points: 89.1% and 10.9%. The two ratings differ by 300 points. Top of the distribution: Flamengo, 81.5%. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. It ended 3-1. The four component numbers read 1.45, 0.59, 0.85, 1.11. A 78.2-point range top to bottom. The model gives 84.8% to someone winning. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Before kickoff our model had this at 80.8% / 15.5% / 3.6%. The result went the way that forecast pointed.
03
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Flamengo beat Grêmio 3-1 on 4 November 2026.

Before the match

Flamengo's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 3 conceded, keeping three clean sheets, with no defeats. Latest: a 4-1 win away to Vasco da Gama on 29 October.

Flamengo visited Vasco da Gama on 29 October (Brasileirão Série A) and won 4-1; their goals totalled four, compared with one conceded. Mineiro travelled to face Flamengo (Brasileirão Série A) on 26 October. For Flamengo, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed. 0-0 was Flamengo's result against Estudiantes L.P. on 23 October (Copa Libertadores), playing at home; Flamengo drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 18 October fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Flamengo with Bahia. Flamengo won 3-0 away from home, netting three goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Estudiantes L.P. (Copa Libertadores), Flamengo finished 0-0 on 16 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition.

73 points in 33 matches put Flamengo 1st in the pre-match results-based Brasileirão Série A standings.

Grêmio: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; seven goals scored, six conceded. Paranaense were their latest opponents, at home on 30 October: a 2-0 win.

Against Paranaense in Brasileirão Série A, Grêmio scored two and conceded zero on 30 October; the at home result was 2-0. Grêmio's away from home game on 26 October (Brasileirão Série A) ended 1-0 against Coritiba, with one goal for and zero against. On 18 October, Cruzeiro faced Grêmio in Brasileirão Série A: Grêmio lost 2-4 at home, having scored two and conceded four. Brasileirão Série A, 11 October brought a home meeting with Internacional; Grêmio drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Grêmio visited Clube do Remo on 7 October (Brasileirão Série A) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded.

Before kickoff, Brasileirão Série A's results-based standings placed Grêmio 17th after 33 matches and 37 points.

The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-0 away win for Flamengo on 10 May and a 3-2 home win for Grêmio on 22 September 2024.

After the match

Samuel Lino opened the scoring in the 20th minute for Flamengo to make it 1-0. Pedro added to the tally in the 28th minute for Flamengo, set up by Jorge Carrascal, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Flamengo extended the lead through Pedro 47 minutes into the game to make it 3-0. Francis Amuzu got one back 69 minutes into the game for Grêmio to make it 1-3. Walter Kannemann (59') and Mathías Villasanti (89') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Flamengo 300 points stronger than Grêmio. Flamengo won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 81.5%. Flamengo are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Copa Libertadores and the 2026 Brasileirão Série A. five changes were recorded for Flamengo. Grêmio picked up two yellow cards. The substitution total for Grêmio was five. After coming on for Grêmio in minute 46, Francis Amuzu scored in minute 69.