Chapecoense 1–2 Mirassol: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

It landed.

Current ratings

1336against1496

A 160-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Recorded ahead of kickoff

Goal expectation

Chapecoense0.98

Mirassol1.71

Expected share of the points

01
160 points is a wide separation: Mirassol rates 1496, Chapecoense 1336. That resolves to 24.4% / 24.7% / 51.0%.
02
Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 1-1 in Brasileirão Série A. The tie closed out 1-2. The away side is rated higher. The underlying goal expectation is 0.98 for Chapecoense, 1.71 for Mirassol. 160 points of rating separation. A decisive result carries 75.4% against 24.7% for the draw. Flat distribution — 0-1 tops it at just 11.6%. The ratings draw on 33 and 36 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The three results cover 26.6 points. Scorelines above 8%: 4. By expected share of the points: 36.7% and 63.3%. Both components point the same way, toward Mirassol: 0.84 to 0.72 going forward, 0.92 to 1.51 going back. 51.0% goes to Mirassol, the model's lean. In absolute terms: Chapecoense 0.72/1.51, Mirassol 0.84/0.92 on attack and defence. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -164 and -4. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-1. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The gap between first and second outcome is 26.3 points, Mirassol ahead of the draw.
03
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Mirassol edged past Chapecoense 2-1 on 3 November 2026.

Before the match

Chapecoense: one win and four defeats over five games; three goals scored, 13 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Bragantino were their latest opponents, away on 28 October: a 3-0 defeat.

Playing away from home against Bragantino (Brasileirão Série A), Chapecoense finished 0-3 on 28 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against three from the opposition. 24 October: Chapecoense won 2-1 against Fluminense at home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Botafogo in Brasileirão Série A, Chapecoense scored zero and conceded one on 17 October; the away from home result was 0-1. Chapecoense's at home game on 12 October (Brasileirão Série A) ended 1-4 against Paranaense, with one goal for and four against. On 7 October, Vitória faced Chapecoense in Brasileirão Série A: Chapecoense lost 0-4 away from home, having scored zero and conceded four.

Before kickoff, Brasileirão Série A's results-based standings placed Chapecoense 20th after 32 matches and 21 points.

Mirassol's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 5 conceded. Latest: a 2-0 defeat away to Corinthians on 30 October.

0-2 was Mirassol's result against Corinthians on 30 October (Brasileirão Série A), playing away from home; Mirassol lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 24 October fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Mirassol with São Paulo. Mirassol drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against Internacional (Brasileirão Série A), Mirassol finished 2-0 on 16 October. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 11 October: Mirassol lost 0-1 against Bahia away from home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Bragantino in Brasileirão Série A, Mirassol scored one and conceded one on 7 October; the away from home result was 1-1.

37 points in 33 matches put Mirassol 16th in the pre-match results-based Brasileirão Série A standings.

The last recorded meeting was a 1-1 draw at Mirassol on 10 May.

After the match

Kauan Gomes opened the scoring inside the first 12 minutes for Chapecoense, set up by Giovanni Augusto, to make it 1-0. Reinaldo levelled it from the penalty spot 49 minutes into the game for Mirassol to make it 1-1. Anderson (an own goal) put Mirassol in front 57 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Bruno Pacheco (15'), Camilo (22'), Denilson Alves (45') and Eduardo Doma (82') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Mirassol 160 points stronger than Chapecoense. Mirassol won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win. three yellow cards went to Chapecoense. The substitution total for Chapecoense was five. Mirassol picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Mirassol was five. The scoring record shows one lead change. Mirassol won after falling behind.