Paranaense 1–3 Vasco da Gama: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

Current ratings

1525against1584

A 59-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Recorded ahead of kickoff

Goal expectation

Paranaense1.60

Vasco da Gama1.48

Expected share of the points

01
Prior record: 8-6-6 across 20 since 2010. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in Brasileirão Série A. The present numbers are 1525 against 1584, and the model turns that into 37.1% / 27.8% / 35.2%.
02
Its rounded call is 1-1. The higher-rated side expects 49.1% of the points; the other side 50.9%. All three results are bunched inside 9.3 points. In absolute terms: Paranaense 1.10/1.05, Vasco da Gama 1.04/0.98 on attack and defence. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 34 and 41 rated matches respectively. The match finished 1-3. The higher rating belongs to the away side. The model gives 72.3% to someone winning. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 10.9% — not a strong call. The underlying goal expectation is 1.60 for Paranaense, 1.48 for Vasco da Gama. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Scorelines above 8%: 3. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 59 points. 37.1% goes to Paranaense, the model's lean. The leading two outcomes sit 1.9 points apart, which is not a real preference. Each side owns one half of the argument — Paranaense the scoring rate at 1.10, Vasco da Gama the conceding rate at 0.98.
03
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Vasco da Gama beat Paranaense 3-1 on 4 November 2026.

Before the match

Paranaense's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 8 conceded. Latest: a 2-0 defeat away to Grêmio on 30 October; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 away to Chapecoense on 12 October.

Against Grêmio in Brasileirão Série A, Paranaense scored zero and conceded two on 30 October; the away from home result was 0-2. Paranaense's away from home game on 24 October (Brasileirão Série A) ended 1-1 against Vitória, with one goal for and one against. On 17 October, Palmeiras faced Paranaense in Brasileirão Série A: Paranaense lost 0-2 at home, having scored zero and conceded two. Brasileirão Série A, 12 October brought an away meeting with Chapecoense; Paranaense won 4-1, a return of four goals scored and one conceded. Paranaense hosted Mineiro on 8 October (Brasileirão Série A) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded.

Before kickoff, Brasileirão Série A's results-based standings placed Paranaense 5th after 33 matches and 54 points.

Vasco da Gama: two wins and three defeats over five games; six goals scored, ten conceded. Flamengo were their latest opponents, at home on 29 October: a 4-1 defeat.

On 29 October, Flamengo faced Vasco da Gama in Brasileirão Série A: Vasco da Gama lost 1-4 at home, having scored one and conceded four. Brasileirão Série A, 24 October brought a home meeting with Corinthians; Vasco da Gama won 3-2, a return of three goals scored and two conceded. Vasco da Gama hosted Boca Juniors on 21 October (Copa Sudamericana) and lost 1-3; their goals totalled one, compared with three conceded. São Paulo hosted Vasco da Gama (Brasileirão Série A) on 18 October. For Vasco da Gama, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 1-0 was Vasco da Gama's result against Boca Juniors on 14 October (Copa Sudamericana), playing away from home; Vasco da Gama won, with one scored to zero conceded.

38 points in 32 matches put Vasco da Gama 15th in the pre-match results-based Brasileirão Série A standings.

Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 home win for Vasco da Gama on 10 May and a 2-1 home win for Vasco da Gama on 27 August 2024.

After the match

Stiven Mendoza opened the scoring in the 22nd minute for Paranaense, set up by Luiz Gustavo, to make it 1-0. Juan Aguirre (an own goal) levelled it 61 minutes into the game for Vasco da Gama to make it 1-1. Bruno Duarte put Vasco da Gama in front 63 minutes into the game, set up by José Rodríguez, to make it 2-1. Gabriel Pereira added to the tally 67 minutes into the game for Vasco da Gama, set up by Facundo Colidio, to make it 3-1. Kevin Viveros (77') was sent off. Jádson (1'), Alan Lescano (55'), Dantas (90') and Arthur Dias (90') were booked. Paranaense: three yellow cards and one red card. five changes were recorded for Paranaense. Vasco da Gama picked up one yellow card. Vasco da Gama: five substitutions. Facundo Colidio, on in the 46th minute, provided an assist. Bruno Duarte entered for Vasco da Gama at 46 minutes and later scored in minute 63. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. Vasco da Gama turned a deficit into victory.