Rated 1484 and 1464, these two produce a 49.5% / 25.0% / 25.5% split. Each side owns one half of the argument — Mirassol the scoring rate at 0.89, Bragantino the conceding rate at 0.91.
Bragantino holds a 24.0-point edge on the next outcome. 49.5% goes to Bragantino, the model's lean. The model gives 75.0% to someone winning. Played and finished 1-1. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -16 and -36. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.6%. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Point estimate: 1-1. A 20-point spread sits between the two figures. Between best and worst outcome there is 24.5 points of daylight. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Logged in advance of kickoff — 51.9% / 24.5% / 23.7%. The match did not follow it. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.40 and 1.09. Expected shares 62.0% against 38.0% on Elo. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 28 and 28 matches. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 1-0 in Brasileirão Série A. The four component numbers read 0.88, 0.91, 0.89, 1.08.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
five goals for and nine against accompanied Bragantino's one draw and four defeats across five outings, a winless run. On 3 October, Bragantino recorded a 1-0 defeat visiting Mineiro.
Brasileirão Série A, 3 October brought an away meeting with Mineiro; Bragantino lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. Bragantino visited Flamengo on 20 September (Brasileirão Série A) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Botafogo hosted Bragantino (Brasileirão Série A) on 12 September. For Bragantino, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 2-3 was Bragantino's result against Bahia on 5 September (Brasileirão Série A), playing at home; Bragantino lost, with two scored to three conceded. The 29 August fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Bragantino with São Paulo. Bragantino lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two.
Bragantino stood 10th in the results-based Brasileirão Série A table before kickoff, with 36 points from 28 matches.
Mirassol: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; seven goals scored, six conceded. Botafogo were their latest opponents, at home on 19 September: a 2-0 win.
Against Botafogo in Brasileirão Série A, Mirassol scored two and conceded zero on 19 September; the at home result was 2-0. Mirassol's at home game on 13 September (Brasileirão Série A) ended 2-2 against Vitória, with two goals for and two against. On 6 September, Coritiba faced Mirassol in Brasileirão Série A: Mirassol won 2-1 away from home, having scored two and conceded one. Brasileirão Série A, 2 September brought an away meeting with Flamengo; Mirassol lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded. Mirassol hosted Palmeiras on 30 August (Brasileirão Série A) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded.
Before kickoff, Brasileirão Série A's results-based standings placed Mirassol 15th after 28 matches and 32 points.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-0 away win for Bragantino on 5 April.
After the match
Bragantino and Mirassol drew 1-1 on 7 October 2026. Eduardo Sasha opened the scoring 51 minutes into the game for Bragantino, set up by Yan, to make it 1-0. André Luis levelled it 70 minutes into the game for Mirassol, set up by Alesson, to make it 1-1. João Victor (28') was sent off. Mirassol are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Copa Libertadores and the 2026 Brasileirão Série A. Bragantino made four changes. one red card went to Mirassol. Mirassol: five substitutions. Alesson, on in the 57th minute, provided an assist. André Luis entered for Mirassol at 57 minutes and later scored in minute 70.