There is no trade-off to weigh: Cruzeiro scores at the higher rate (1.17 to 0.79) and concedes at the lower (0.99 to 1.20). On rating it is 1421 against 1546, which the model resolves to 28.6% / 25.9% / 45.5%.
A decisive result carries 74.1% against 25.9% for the draw. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 0-3 in comp-fd-BSA. Higher rating: the away side. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 41.5% to 58.5%. A 125-point spread sits between the two figures. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -79 and +46. Between best and worst outcome there is 19.6 points of daylight. Both figures rest on decent samples, 26 and 27 matches. The underlying goal expectation is 1.16 for Vitória, 1.89 for Cruzeiro. Top of the distribution: Cruzeiro, 45.5%. Attack/defence pairs: 0.79/1.20 and 1.17/0.99. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 31.4% / 26.7% / 41.9%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Point estimate: 1-1. Played and finished 1-3. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 10.4%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Cruzeiro beat Vitória 3-1 on 20 September 2026. Carlos Renê opened the scoring in the 39th minute for Vitória, set up by Matheuzinho, to make it 1-0. Keny Arroyo levelled it 46 minutes into the game for Cruzeiro, set up by Kaio Jorge, to make it 1-1. Lucas Villalba put Cruzeiro in front 66 minutes into the game, set up by Keny Arroyo, to make it 2-1. Matheus Pereira added to the tally in the 97th minute for Cruzeiro, set up by Keny Arroyo, to make it 3-1. Jonathan (40'), Gerson (78') and Felipe Morais (87') were booked. Lucas Villalba scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Cruzeiro 125 points stronger than Vitória.