At 26.2% the draw is close to the most likely single outcome.
The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Between best and worst outcome there is 17.9 points of daylight. Expected goals sit at 1.86 against 1.50. Logged in advance of kickoff — 33.6% / 27.3% / 39.1%. The match did not follow it. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Distance between the ratings: 15 points, narrow on this scale. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 9.7% — not a strong call. 44.1% goes to Vasco da Gama, the model's lean. Final score: 5-0. Elo expected shares: 57.1% and 42.9%. Versus the 1500 seed: -26 and -11. Win-or-lose totals 73.7%; the draw takes the rest. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-BSA. One half each — Coritiba in front on 1.02, Vasco da Gama behind on 1.08. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 26 and 27 matches. First to second is a 14.5-point step, Vasco da Gama over Coritiba. Attack/defence pairs: 1.02/1.08 and 1.02/1.23. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Vasco da Gama overwhelmed Coritiba 5-0 on 19 September 2026. Facundo Colidio opened the scoring in the 24th minute for Vasco da Gama to make it 1-0. Bruno Duarte added to the tally in the 44th minute for Vasco da Gama, set up by Carlos Gómez, to make it 2-0. Alan Lescano added to the tally from the penalty spot 56 minutes into the game for Vasco da Gama to make it 3-0. Carlos Gómez added to the tally 63 minutes into the game for Vasco da Gama, set up by Alan Saldivia, to make it 4-0. Ramon Rique added to the tally 74 minutes into the game for Vasco da Gama, set up by Marino Hinestroza, to make it 5-0. Paulo Roberto (61') and Carlos Gómez (64') were booked. Ramon Rique scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Coritiba just 15 rating points ahead of Vasco da Gama, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. On current ratings the model puts Vasco da Gama at around 1.86 goals in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Vasco da Gama won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.