Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 0.89 to 0.86 says Internacional, 0.85 to 0.97 says São Paulo. On rating it is 1500 against 1470, which the model resolves to 51.0% / 24.7% / 24.3%.
Scorelines above 8%: 5. Attack/defence pairs: 0.86/0.85 and 0.89/0.97. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 13.2%. Higher rating: the home side. Ratings sit 30 apart. Expected goals come out at 1.24 to 1.02. Someone wins 75.3% of the time by this model. Rounded, that is 1-1. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-BSA. Expected shares 63.3% against 36.7% on Elo. The gap between first and second outcome is 26.3 points, São Paulo ahead of the draw. The model's preferred outcome is São Paulo at 51.0%. The ratings draw on 26 and 26 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read 0 and -30. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 51.4% / 24.6% / 24.0%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. The three results cover 26.7 points.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
São Paulo edged past Internacional 1-0 on 20 September 2026. Jonathan Calleri opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 15 minutes for São Paulo to make it 1-0. Jonathan Calleri (19'), Matheus Bahia (20'), Bruno Henrique (34') and Gabriel Mercado (90') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: São Paulo are 30 points stronger than Internacional. São Paulo won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.