A 45.7% / 25.9% / 28.4% split off ratings of 1460 and 1465. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 0.98 to 0.90 says Botafogo, 1.10 to 1.15 says Mirassol.
As a single number the model says 1-1. Most likely single result is Mirassol on 45.7%. The rating gap itself is 5 points, which is narrow by the model's standards. Elo expected shares: 58.5% and 41.5%. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 11.2%. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 2-3 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -40 and -35. Higher rating: the away side. Before kickoff our model had this at 41.6% / 26.8% / 31.6%. That call matched the result. A 19.8-point range top to bottom. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Result on the day: 2-0. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 27 and 26 rated matches respectively. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Mirassol holds a 17.3-point edge on the next outcome. xG: 1.54 to 1.45. Someone wins 74.1% of the time by this model. In absolute terms: Mirassol 0.90/1.10, Botafogo 0.98/1.15 on attack and defence.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Mirassol beat Botafogo 2-0 on 19 September 2026. Carlos Eduardo opened the scoring in the 16th minute for Mirassol, set up by Igor Formiga, to make it 1-0. Carlos Eduardo added to the tally 47 minutes into the game for Mirassol to make it 2-0. Victor Hugo (35') was booked. Carlos Eduardo scored after coming off the bench. Mirassol won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.