Rated 1640 and 1496, these two produce a 66.5% / 20.7% / 12.8% split. Flamengo is ahead on each half — 1.35 to 0.94 in attack, 0.67 to 0.93 in defence.
A decisive result carries 79.3% against 20.7% for the draw. Ratings sit 144 apart. They have met once on record — 2026, 0-3 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. Flamengo's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 76.9%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-0. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 27 and 26 matches. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-0 at 12.4%. First to second is a 45.8-point step, Flamengo over the draw. The three results cover 53.7 points. Played and finished 2-1. Logged in advance of kickoff — 64.4% / 21.3% / 14.3%. That call matched the result. Versus the 1500 seed: +140 and -4. xG: 1.86 to 0.85. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Attack/defence pairs: 1.35/0.67 and 0.94/0.93. Top of the distribution: Flamengo, 66.5%. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Higher rating: the home side.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Flamengo edged past Bragantino 2-1 on 20 September 2026. Guillermo Varela opened the scoring inside the first 13 minutes for Flamengo, set up by Jorge Carrascal, to make it 1-0. Pedro added to the tally 71 minutes into the game for Flamengo, set up by Jorginho, to make it 2-0. Bruno Henrique (an own goal) pulled one back late on, in the 86th minute for Bragantino to make it 1-2. Fernando (6'), Alex Sandro (37'), Guillermo Varela (51'), Bruno Henrique (89'), José Herrera (90') and Ariel Sant'Anna (90') were booked. Bruno Henrique scored after coming off the bench. On current ratings the model favours Flamengo at 66.5% in this pairing, and Flamengo won this one. Flamengo's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in Brasileirão Série A 2026. Flamengo won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.