An unusually heavy draw share here at 26.2%.
xG: 1.16 to 1.56. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 1-3 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on. Top of the distribution: Fluminense, 44.3%. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 11.9%. Between best and worst outcome there is 18.1 points of daylight. A 117-point spread sits between the two figures. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The higher rating belongs to the away side. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Win-or-lose totals 73.8%; the draw takes the rest. In absolute terms: Corinthians 0.78/0.99, Fluminense 1.16/1.00 on attack and defence. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Played and finished 1-3. The ratings draw on 27 and 27 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. A 14.8-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -54 and +63. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 42.6% to 57.4%. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 32.7% / 27.1% / 40.2%. It landed. Honours split: 1.16 forward for Fluminense, 0.99 back for Corinthians.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Fluminense beat Corinthians 3-1 on 20 September 2026. Hulk opened the scoring in the 24th minute for Fluminense, set up by Luciano Acosta, to make it 1-0. Gustavo Henrique levelled it 56 minutes into the game for Corinthians to make it 1-1. Fluminense regained the lead through Hulk 76 minutes into the game, set up by Ganso, to make it 2-1. Kevin Serna added to the tally in the 93rd minute for Fluminense, set up by Martinelli, to make it 3-1. 8 players were booked, among them Memphis Depay (20'), Matheuzinho (35'), Samuel Xavier (44'), Martinelli (45'), André Luiz (61') and Agustín Canobbio (62'). The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Fluminense 117 points stronger than Corinthians. Corinthians's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive defeats in Brasileirão Série A 2026.