A 152-point edge to Mineiro, which the model prices at 67.5% / 20.4% / 12.1%.
Mineiro carries the largest share, 67.5%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.2%. Mineiro's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 77.7%. Played and finished 1-1. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. The higher rating belongs to the home side. They have met once on record — 2026, 4-0 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Expected goals 1.95-1.02. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 65.7% / 20.9% / 13.4%. That one did not come off. Mineiro holds a 47.1-point edge on the next outcome. The ratings draw on 26 and 24 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. There is no trade-off to weigh: Mineiro scores at the higher rate (1.03 to 0.88) and concedes at the lower (0.86 to 1.27). Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +38 and -114. Spread across the three results is 55.4 points. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Raw profiles are 1.03 and 0.86 against 0.88 and 1.27. 79.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Mineiro and Chapecoense drew 1-1 on 19 September 2026. Túlio Oliveira opened the scoring in the 44th minute for Chapecoense, set up by Dudu, to make it 1-0. Mateo Cassierra levelled it 69 minutes into the game for Mineiro, set up by Bernard, to make it 1-1. Vitor Hugo (48'), Vitor Fernandes (81') and Fernando (90') were booked. Mateo Cassierra scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Mineiro 152 points stronger than Chapecoense.