Broken into parts the two profiles nearly overlap, 1.15 versus 1.17 in attack and 0.99 versus 1.02 at the back. On rating it is 1559 against 1541, which the model resolves to 49.1% / 25.1% / 25.8%.
Most and least likely outcomes are 24.0 points apart. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Elo expected shares: 61.7% and 38.3%. The model gives 74.9% to someone winning. With 26 and 26 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. On expected goals the model has it 1.74 against 1.55. The forecast we stored before the match was 46.7% / 25.7% / 27.7%. It landed. Attack/defence pairs: 1.15/0.99 and 1.17/1.02. The model's preferred outcome is Paranaense at 49.1%. It ended 2-1. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 10.0%. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The home side is rated higher. Point estimate: 1-1. The leading outcome clears the second by 23.3 points. Versus the 1500 seed: +59 and +41. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 0-3 in comp-fd-BSA. Distance between the ratings: 18 points, narrow on this scale.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Paranaense edged past Bahia 2-1 on 20 September 2026. Lucas Esquivel opened the scoring in the 16th minute for Paranaense, set up by Kerwin Vargas, to make it 1-0. Erick levelled it in the 26th minute for Bahia to make it 1-1. Paranaense regained the lead through Jorge Rivaldo 69 minutes into the game, set up by Kerwin Vargas, to make it 2-1. Nicolás Acevedo (30'), Juan Aguirre (38'), Arthur Dias (45'), Kauê Junior (74') and Jorge Rivaldo (89') were booked. Jorge Rivaldo scored after coming off the bench. Paranaense won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.