The draw carries unusual weight here, 26.0% against 45.0% and 29.0%.
Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 25 and 27 rated matches respectively. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +36 and +46. The three results cover 19.0 points. A 16.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Scorelines above 8%: 2. The higher-rated side expects 42.2% of the points; the other side 57.8%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.16/0.99 and 1.17/0.99. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 0-0 in comp-fd-BSA. A decisive result carries 74.0% against 26.0% for the draw. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 42.9% / 26.5% / 30.6%. It landed. 45.0% goes to Santos, the model's lean. Neither side holds a component edge worth the name: scoring rates of 1.16 against 1.17, conceding rates of 0.99 against 0.99. The rating gap itself is 10 points, which is narrow by the model's standards. The underlying goal expectation is 1.70 for Santos, 1.56 for Cruzeiro. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.2%.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Santos edged past Cruzeiro 2-1 on 13 September 2026. Benjamín Rollheiser opened the scoring in the 28th minute for Santos to make it 1-0. Fabrício Bruno (an own goal) added to the tally in the 32nd minute for Santos to make it 2-0. Matheus Pereira pulled one back late on, in the 90th minute for Cruzeiro, set up by Luciano Rodríguez, to make it 1-2. Kaio Jorge (45'), Éverton (65'), Rony (79'), Gabriel Brazão (82') and Fabrício Bruno (90') were booked. Santos's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in Brasileirão Série A 2026. Santos won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.