A 62.8% / 21.7% / 15.4% split off ratings of 1614 and 1500. Palmeiras is ahead on each half — 1.09 to 0.86 in attack, 0.59 to 0.85 in defence.
Attack/defence pairs: 1.09/0.59 and 0.86/0.85. Of the individual scorelines, 1-0 carries the most weight at 17.5% — 0-0 is next at 12.7%. The leading outcome clears the second by 41.1 points. Palmeiras carries the largest share, 62.8%. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-BSA. Higher rating: the home side. Neither figure is thin: 27 and 26 matches respectively sit behind them. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +114 and 0. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. The two ratings differ by 114 points. Someone wins 78.2% of the time by this model. Expected goals 1.38-0.68. Most and least likely outcomes are 47.4 points apart. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 62.4% / 21.9% / 15.8%. That call matched the result. Expected shares 73.7% against 26.3% on Elo. Played and finished 2-0. Its point estimate is 1-0.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Palmeiras beat São Paulo 2-0 on 12 September 2026. Murilo Cerqueira opened the scoring 47 minutes into the game for Palmeiras, set up by Gustavo Gómez, to make it 1-0. Vítor Roque added to the tally 50 minutes into the game for Palmeiras, set up by Khellven, to make it 2-0. Luis Osorio (39') was sent off. Pablo Maia (12'), Gustavo Gómez (45'), Agustin Giay (45'), Murilo Cerqueira (76') and Larson (85') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Palmeiras at 62.8% in this pairing, and Palmeiras won this one. Palmeiras are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Brasileirão Série A 2026.