Flamengo enters 194 points clear of Corinthians on rating, which the model reads as 72.1% / 18.9% / 8.9%.
A 63.2-point range top to bottom. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Both figures rest on decent samples, 27 and 27 matches. Its point estimate is 1-0. Goal expectation splits 1.99 to 0.71. Win-or-lose totals 81.0%; the draw takes the rest. 194 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Flamengo leads the distribution by 53.2 points over the draw. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The match finished 2-1. The four component numbers read 1.35, 0.67, 0.78, 0.99. 72.1% goes to Flamengo, the model's lean. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +140 and -54. Expected shares 81.6% against 18.4% on Elo. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on. Flamengo holds both halves of the profile — 1.35 against 0.78 for scoring, 0.67 against 0.99 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Logged in advance of kickoff — 63.7% / 21.5% / 14.8%. That call matched the result.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Flamengo edged past Corinthians 2-1 on 13 September 2026. Lucas Paquetá opened the scoring 48 minutes into the game for Flamengo to make it 1-0. Guilherme levelled it 78 minutes into the game for Corinthians, set up by Kaio César, to make it 1-1. Flamengo regained the lead through Bruno Henrique late on, in the 89th minute, set up by Joaquín Freitas, to make it 2-1. 7 players were booked, among them Charles (37'), Lucas Paquetá (50'), Samuel Lino (78'), Bidon (87'), Erick Pulgar (90') and Rodrigo Garro (90'). Bruno Henrique scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Flamengo 194 points stronger than Corinthians. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings the model favours Flamengo at 72.1% in this pairing, and Flamengo won this one. Flamengo's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in Brasileirão Série A 2026. Corinthians's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive defeats in Brasileirão Série A 2026. Flamengo won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.