On these ratings there is no favourite to name — 35.4% / 27.8% / 36.8%, nothing above 36.8%.
Top to bottom the spread is only 9.0 points. The away side is rated higher. Point estimate: 1-1. Paranaense is ahead on each half — 1.15 to 1.02 in attack, 0.99 to 1.23 in defence. Most likely single result is Paranaense on 36.8%. Played and finished 3-3. Attack/defence pairs: 1.02/1.23 and 1.15/0.99. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Elo expected shares: 49.3% and 50.7%. Expected goals come out at 1.50 to 1.91. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 9.5% — not a strong call. The top two outcomes are within 1.4 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -11 and +59. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-BSA. With 27 and 26 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. 70 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. A decisive result carries 72.2% against 27.8% for the draw.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Coritiba and Paranaense drew 3-3 on 12 September 2026. Luiz Gustavo opened the scoring inside the first 14 minutes for Paranaense, set up by Lucas Esquivel, to make it 1-0. Arthur Dias added to the tally in the 30th minute for Paranaense, set up by João Victor, to make it 2-0. Tiago pulled one back 48 minutes into the game for Coritiba to make it 1-2. Kevin Viveros added to the tally from the penalty spot 63 minutes into the game for Paranaense to make it 3-1. Rodrigo Moledo pulled one back in the 92nd minute for Coritiba, set up by Josué, to make it 2-3. Rodrigo Moledo levelled it in the 97th minute for Coritiba, set up by Josué, to make it 3-3. Breno Lopes (45') was sent off. 8 players were booked, among them Joaquín Lavega (28'), Jacy Maranhão (34'), Kevin Viveros (34'), João Victor (43'), Dantas (45') and João Pedro Chermont (45'). Rodrigo Moledo scored after coming off the bench. 2 goals came after the 80th minute.