On these ratings there is no favourite to name — 33.6% / 27.3% / 39.1%, nothing above 39.1%.
Recorded ahead of kickoff: 30.2% / 26.4% / 43.4%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.8%. Internacional carries the largest share, 39.1%. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The higher rating expects 52.7% of the points, the lower 47.3%. Rating separation comes to 84 points. The underlying goal expectation is 1.27 for Chapecoense, 1.53 for Internacional. A 11.8-point range covers every outcome here. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 24 and 26 matches. First to second is a 5.5-point step, Internacional over Chapecoense. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. The model gives 72.7% to someone winning. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -114 and -30. Internacional holds both halves of the profile — 0.89 against 0.88 for scoring, 0.97 against 1.27 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Attack/defence pairs: 0.88/1.27 and 0.89/0.97.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Internacional edged past Chapecoense 2-1 on 12 September 2026. Bruno Henrique opened the scoring in the 25th minute for Internacional, set up by Johan Carbonero, to make it 1-0. Maurício Garcez levelled it 46 minutes into the game for Chapecoense, set up by Marcinho, to make it 1-1. Internacional regained the lead through Johan Carbonero 67 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. 8 players were booked, among them Johan Carbonero (44'), Marcinho (45'), Eduardo Doma (49'), Camilo (64'), João Victor (74') and Yannick Bolasie (75').