Neither win dominates this distribution — the draw takes 26.8% against 41.4% and 31.7%.
Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -35 and -4. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 31 points. Botafogo leads the distribution by 9.7 points over Bragantino. Logged in advance of kickoff — 39.5% / 27.3% / 33.3%. The match did not follow it. The ratings draw on 26 and 26 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The match finished 1-1. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 11.8%. Someone wins 73.1% of the time by this model. The four component numbers read 0.98, 1.15, 0.94, 0.93. On expected goals the model has it 1.35 against 1.47. They have met once on record — 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Elo expected shares: 54.9% and 45.1%. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The distribution runs from 41.4% down to 26.8%. Neither side holds both halves — Botafogo scores at 0.98, Bragantino concedes at 0.93.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Botafogo and Bragantino drew 1-1 on 12 September 2026. Lucas Monzón (an own goal) opened the scoring in the 30th minute for Bragantino, set up by Yan, to make it 1-0. Vitinho levelled it 56 minutes into the game for Botafogo, set up by Alex Telles, to make it 1-1. Yan (44') was sent off. Lucas Monzón (65'), Kadir Barría (68'), Nahuel Ferraresi (70'), Tiago Volpi (73') and Juninho Capixaba (77') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Bragantino are 31 points stronger than Botafogo.