1541 plays 1419; the model splits it 63.9% / 21.4% / 14.6%. Both components point the same way, toward Bahia: 1.17 to 0.90 going forward, 1.02 to 1.17 going back.
63.9% goes to Bahia, the model's lean. The model's expected-goals figures are 2.02 and 1.24. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 9.7%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +41 and -81. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 58.7% / 22.8% / 18.5%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Point estimate: 2-1. A decisive result carries 78.5% against 21.4% for the draw. The higher rating expects 74.6% of the points, the lower 25.4%. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 1-4 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. Behind them are 26 and 27 rated matches. The three results cover 49.3 points. 122 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Raw profiles are 1.17 and 1.02 against 0.90 and 1.17. The gap between first and second outcome is 42.5 points, Bahia ahead of the draw. Higher rating: the home side. Played and finished 2-1. The quoted ratings already absorb this match.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Bahia edged past Clube do Remo 2-1 on 14 September 2026. Jean Lucas opened the scoring in the 20th minute for Bahia, set up by Cristian Olivera, to make it 1-0. Luciano Juba added to the tally from the penalty spot in the 91st minute for Bahia to make it 2-0. Vitor Bueno pulled one back from the penalty spot in the 96th minute for Clube do Remo to make it 1-2. Nicolás Acevedo (8') and Matheus Piaui (69') were booked. Vitor Bueno scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Bahia 122 points stronger than Clube do Remo. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. On current ratings the model favours Bahia at 63.9% in this pairing, and Bahia won this one. Clube do Remo's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in Brasileirão Série A 2026. Bahia won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.