A draw is doing more work in this distribution than usual: 26.6%, with the two wins on 42.5% and 30.9%.
Win-or-lose totals 73.4%; the draw takes the rest. Before kickoff our model had this at 45.2% / 26.0% / 28.8%. That call matched the result. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.53 and 1.35. Mineiro carries the largest share, 42.5%. Both figures rest on decent samples, 26 and 27 matches. Ratings sit 25 apart. Its point estimate is 1-1. The higher-rated side expects 44.3% of the points; the other side 55.7%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.6%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. They have met once on record — 2026, 0-1 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. Mineiro holds a 11.6-point edge on the next outcome. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +38 and +63. Played and finished 3-1. The edge is split: Fluminense scores at the higher rate (1.16 to 1.03), Mineiro concedes at the lower (0.86 to 1.00). The away side is rated higher. In absolute terms: Mineiro 1.03/0.86, Fluminense 1.16/1.00 on attack and defence.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Mineiro beat Fluminense 3-1 on 12 September 2026. Reinier opened the scoring 61 minutes into the game for Mineiro, set up by Tomás Cuello, to make it 1-0. Tomás Cuello added to the tally 63 minutes into the game for Mineiro to make it 2-0. Vitor Fernandes added to the tally late on, in the 81st minute for Mineiro to make it 3-0. Rodrigo Castillo got one back late on, in the 90th minute for Fluminense, set up by Kevin Serna, to make it 1-3. Alan Franco (19'), Otávio (52') and Rodrigo Castillo (69') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Fluminense slightly the stronger side, by 25 rating points over Mineiro, even though it was Mineiro who won this one. Every goal came after the interval. Mineiro won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.