Draw weight is the story: 26.3% of a 43.9% / 26.3% / 29.8% split.
Neither component contradicts the other: Grêmio leads 0.79-0.79 forward and 1.00-1.20 back. Raw profiles are 0.79 and 1.20 against 0.79 and 1.00. Spread across the three results is 17.6 points. A decisive result carries 73.7% against 26.3% for the draw. Expected shares 57.0% against 43.0% on Elo. With 26 and 27 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Expected goals 1.18-1.28. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The match finished 1-0. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.9%. Versus the 1500 seed: -79 and -63. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Vitória carries the largest share, 43.9%. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 16 points separate the two ratings — a narrow margin. First to second is a 14.1-point step, Vitória over Grêmio. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 42.1% / 26.7% / 31.2%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. As a single number the model says 1-1.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Vitória edged past Grêmio 1-0 on 7 September 2026. Matheuzinho opened the scoring 63 minutes into the game for Vitória, set up by Matheusinho, to make it 1-0. 7 players were booked, among them Pedro Gabriel (36'), Cristian Pavón (38'), Caio Paulista (48'), Erick (48'), Caique (55') and Erick Noriega (59'). Vitória won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.