The draw carries unusual weight here, 27.0% against 40.4% and 32.5%.
The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 0-1 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Expected shares 53.9% against 46.1% on Elo. Behind them are 26 and 26 rated matches. First to second is a 7.9-point step, São Paulo over Mineiro. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Honours split: 1.03 forward for Mineiro, 0.85 back for São Paulo. Raw profiles are 0.86 and 0.85 against 1.03 and 0.86. Its point estimate is 1-1. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 13.3%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at 0 and +38. The match finished 2-0. Most likely single result is São Paulo on 40.4%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The two ratings differ by 38 points. Expected goals 1.10-1.19. The forecast we stored before the match was 35.1% / 27.7% / 37.2%. The result went the other way. The three results cover 13.4 points. A decisive result carries 72.9% against 27.0% for the draw.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
São Paulo beat Mineiro 2-0 on 5 September 2026. Luciano opened the scoring 67 minutes into the game for São Paulo to make it 1-0. Iago Borduchi added to the tally 69 minutes into the game for São Paulo to make it 2-0. Djhordney (90') and Tomás Cuello (90') were booked. Iago Borduchi scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Mineiro slightly the stronger side, by 38 rating points over São Paulo, even though it was São Paulo who won this one. São Paulo won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.