This is one of the wider gaps on the slate: 1640 plays 1419, 221 points apart, splitting 17.7% / 22.5% / 59.8%.
The higher rating expects 71.1% of the points, the lower 28.9%. Spread across the three results is 42.1 points. Played and finished 0-1. Flamengo holds a 37.3-point edge on the next outcome. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Raw profiles are 0.90 and 1.17 against 1.35 and 0.67. Neither component contradicts the other: Flamengo leads 1.35-0.90 forward and 0.67-1.17 back. Versus the 1500 seed: -81 and +140. The xG line reads 0.90 to 2.12. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 27 and 27 rated matches respectively. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 0-3 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 221 points. Higher rating: the away side. Most likely single result is Flamengo on 59.8%. Point estimate: 0-2. The scoreline spread is even — 0-2 on 11.0% leads, but only just. 77.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The forecast we stored before the match was 26.8% / 25.4% / 47.8%. That call matched the result.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Flamengo edged past Clube do Remo 1-0 on 6 September 2026. Samuel Lino opened the scoring 65 minutes into the game for Flamengo, set up by Giorgian De Arrascaeta, to make it 1-0. Antonio Galeano (39'), Giorgian De Arrascaeta (41'), Jorge Carrascal (48') and Marcelinho (76') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Flamengo 221 points stronger than Clube do Remo. On current ratings the model favours Flamengo at 59.8% in this pairing, and Flamengo won this one. Clube do Remo's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in Brasileirão Série A 2026. Flamengo's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in Brasileirão Série A 2026.