No separation at all — 35.8% / 28.0% / 36.2% across the three results.
Santos carries the largest share, 36.2%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The four component numbers read 0.89, 0.97, 1.16, 0.99. Win-or-lose totals 72.0%; the draw takes the rest. All three results are bunched inside 8.2 points. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 66 points. With 26 and 25 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The leading two outcomes sit 0.4 points apart, which is not a real preference. The higher rating belongs to the away side. As a single number the model says 1-1. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 11.8%. Elo expected shares: 49.9% and 50.1%. Scorelines above 8%: 3. The xG line reads 1.31 to 1.52. Logged in advance of kickoff — 48.0% / 25.4% / 26.6%. That one did not come off. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. The two halves pull apart — Santos better going forward at 1.16, Internacional tighter at the back on 0.97. The tie closed out 2-3.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Santos edged past Internacional 3-2 on 6 September 2026. Gabriel Barbosa opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Santos to make it 1-0. Gabriel Barbosa added to the tally from the penalty spot in the 29th minute for Santos to make it 2-0. Christian Oliva added to the tally in the 39th minute for Santos, set up by Benjamín Rollheiser, to make it 3-0. Braian Aguirre got one back 48 minutes into the game for Internacional, set up by Thiago Maia, to make it 1-3. Bruno Henrique pulled one back from the penalty spot in the 91st minute for Internacional to make it 2-3. Matheus Bahia (28') was sent off. 8 players were booked, among them Benjamín Rollheiser (5'), Gabriel Barbosa (59'), Ronaldo (65'), Gonzalo Escobar (69'), Paulinho (69') and Gustavo Henrique (69'). Braian Aguirre and Bruno Henrique scored after coming off the bench. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Santos are 66 points stronger than Internacional. Santos's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in Brasileirão Série A 2026. Santos won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.