One edge each: scoring to Coritiba (1.02 v 0.90), conceding to Mirassol (1.10 v 1.23). On rating it is 1489 against 1460, which the model resolves to 50.7% / 24.7% / 24.5%.
75.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.5%. As a single number the model says 1-1. The higher rating expects 63.2% of the points, the lower 36.8%. The three results cover 26.2 points. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Before kickoff our model had this at 60.0% / 22.5% / 17.5%. That one did not come off. Final score: 1-2. Attack/defence pairs: 1.02/1.23 and 0.90/1.10. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on. Most likely single result is Coritiba on 50.7%. A 29-point difference on the rating scale. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -11 and -40. The xG line reads 1.67 to 1.50. The gap between first and second outcome is 26.0 points, Coritiba ahead of the draw. Neither figure is thin: 27 and 27 matches respectively sit behind them.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Mirassol edged past Coritiba 2-1 on 6 September 2026. Pedro Rocha opened the scoring 61 minutes into the game for Coritiba, set up by Fabinho, to make it 1-0. Gustavo Mosquito levelled it 64 minutes into the game for Mirassol, set up by Igor Formiga, to make it 1-1. Bruno Oliveira put Mirassol in front late on, in the 84th minute, set up by Igor Formiga, to make it 2-1. Denilson Alves (26'), Daniel Borges (27'), Thiago Santos (34'), João Victor (34'), João Pedro Chermont (63') and Shaylon (90') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Coritiba slightly the stronger side, by 29 rating points over Mirassol, even though it was Mirassol who won this one. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Mirassol only a 24.5% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Mirassol won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.