The split is one apiece: Chapecoense leads the attacking rate on 0.88, Corinthians the defensive on 0.99. On rating it is 1446 against 1386, which the model resolves to 55.4% / 23.6% / 21.0%.
1-1 leads the scorelines at 12.2% — not a strong call. Corinthians holds a 31.8-point edge on the next outcome. Expected shares 67.3% against 32.7% on Elo. A decisive result carries 76.4% against 23.6% for the draw. The xG line reads 1.48 to 1.18. With 27 and 24 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Attack/defence pairs: 0.78/0.99 and 0.88/1.27. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Distance between the ratings: 60 points, moderate on this scale. Logged in advance of kickoff — 63.9% / 21.5% / 14.7%. That one did not come off. The home side is rated higher. Result on the day: 1-2. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 0-0 in comp-fd-BSA. Its point estimate is 1-1. Outcomes span 34.4 points. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -54 and -114. Top of the distribution: Corinthians, 55.4%.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Chapecoense edged past Corinthians 2-1 on 6 September 2026. Bidu opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for Corinthians, set up by Gustavo Henrique, to make it 1-0. Marcinho levelled it in the 40th minute for Chapecoense, set up by Heitor, to make it 1-1. Marcinho put Chapecoense in front 77 minutes into the game, set up by Yannick Bolasie, to make it 2-1. Yago Felipe (1'), Túlio Oliveira (45'), Giovanni Augusto (57') and Kauan Gomes (73') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Corinthians slightly the stronger side, by 60 rating points over Chapecoense, even though it was Chapecoense who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Chapecoense only a 21% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Corinthians's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive defeats in Brasileirão Série A 2026. Chapecoense won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.