Too close to call: 39.2% / 27.3% / 33.5%, top outcome 39.2%.
Before kickoff our model had this at 47.7% / 25.4% / 26.9%. The match did not follow it. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. The away side is rated higher. The leading outcome clears the second by 5.7 points. 72.7% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Neither figure is thin: 26 and 26 matches respectively sit behind them. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 52.9% to 47.1%. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.6%. The three outcomes sit within 11.9 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. It ended 2-3. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. The xG line reads 1.42 to 1.46. Bragantino carries the largest share, 39.2%. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. In absolute terms: Bragantino 0.94/0.93, Bahia 1.17/1.02 on attack and defence. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -4 and +41. Honours split: 1.17 forward for Bahia, 0.93 back for Bragantino.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Bahia edged past Bragantino 3-2 on 5 September 2026. Lucas Barbosa opened the scoring inside the first 14 minutes for Bragantino, set up by Yan, to make it 1-0. Luciano Juba levelled it from the penalty spot in the 34th minute for Bahia to make it 1-1. Alejo Veliz put Bahia in front in the 38th minute, set up by Rodrigo Nestor, to make it 2-1. Santiago Ramos (an own goal) levelled it 46 minutes into the game for Bragantino to make it 2-2. Bahia regained the lead through Erick 50 minutes into the game to make it 3-2. Fernando (43'), Erick (51') and Luciano Juba (62') were booked.