On these ratings there is no favourite to name — 35.2% / 27.8% / 37.0%, nothing above 37.0%.
Both figures rest on decent samples, 26 and 27 matches. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -26 and +46. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Final score: 3-1. Cruzeiro carries the largest share, 37.0%. The model gives 72.2% to someone winning. The higher rating expects 51.0% of the points, the lower 49.0%. 72 points of rating separation. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 31.0% / 26.6% / 42.5%. The match did not follow it. The four component numbers read 1.02, 1.08, 1.17, 0.99. The leading two outcomes sit 1.8 points apart, which is not a real preference. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.3%. A 9.2-point range covers every outcome here. They have met once on record — 2026, 3-3 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. Neither component contradicts the other: Cruzeiro leads 1.17-1.02 forward and 0.99-1.08 back. Expected goals come out at 1.50 to 1.71. Its rounded call is 1-1. The quoted ratings already absorb this match.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Vasco da Gama beat Cruzeiro 3-1 on 30 August 2026. Tchê Tchê opened the scoring in the 33rd minute for Vasco da Gama, set up by Facundo Colidio, to make it 1-0. Lucas Freitas added to the tally 55 minutes into the game for Vasco da Gama, set up by Lucas Piton, to make it 2-0. David added to the tally in the 92nd minute for Vasco da Gama, set up by Ramon Rique, to make it 3-0. Felipe Morais got one back in the 95th minute for Cruzeiro, set up by Matheus Pereira, to make it 1-3. João Marcelo (24'), Adson (27') and Cauan Lucas (90') were booked. David and Felipe Morais scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Cruzeiro slightly the stronger side, by 72 rating points over Vasco da Gama, even though it was Vasco da Gama who won this one. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. Vasco da Gama won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.