A 47.0% / 25.6% / 27.4% split off ratings of 1500 and 1496. The two halves pull apart — Bragantino better going forward at 0.94, São Paulo tighter at the back on 0.85.
xG: 1.18 to 1.09. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Versus the 1500 seed: 0 and -4. 4 points of rating separation. The four component numbers read 0.86, 0.85, 0.94, 0.93. The ratings draw on 26 and 26 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Before kickoff our model had this at 40.5% / 27.0% / 32.5%. That call matched the result. The home side is rated higher. Its point estimate is 1-1. Most and least likely outcomes are 21.4 points apart. Most likely single result is São Paulo on 47.0%. First to second is a 19.6-point step, São Paulo over Bragantino. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on. The model gives 74.4% to someone winning. The tie closed out 2-1. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 13.3%. The higher-rated side expects 59.8% of the points; the other side 40.2%.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
São Paulo edged past Bragantino 2-1 on 29 August 2026. Luciano opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 14 minutes for São Paulo to make it 1-0. Gustavo Santana added to the tally 50 minutes into the game for São Paulo to make it 2-0. Fernando pulled one back in the 98th minute for Bragantino, set up by Juninho Capixaba, to make it 1-2. Ariel Sant'Anna (45'), Pedro Henrique (84'), André Silva (85'), Henry Mosquera (86') and Juninho Capixaba (90') were booked. Fernando scored after coming off the bench.