The ratings are far apart — 1614 against 1460, 154 points — and the model turns that into 25.1% / 24.9% / 50.1%.
Both figures rest on decent samples, 27 and 27 matches. Result on the day: 1-1. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-1. Someone wins 75.2% of the time by this model. Palmeiras is ahead on each half — 1.09 to 0.90 in attack, 0.59 to 1.10 in defence. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. The forecast we stored before the match was 21.9% / 23.9% / 54.2%. The result went the other way. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 0-1 in comp-fd-BSA. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. A 25.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 37.5% to 62.5%. On expected goals the model has it 0.79 against 1.62. Raw profiles are 0.90 and 1.10 against 1.09 and 0.59. Rating separation comes to 154 points. Most and least likely outcomes are 25.2 points apart. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -40 and +114. Palmeiras carries the largest share, 50.1%. No scoreline stands out; 0-1 only leads on 14.6%.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Mirassol and Palmeiras drew 1-1 on 30 August 2026. Carlos Eduardo opened the scoring 50 minutes into the game for Mirassol, set up by Igor Formiga, to make it 1-0. Mauricio levelled it 75 minutes into the game for Palmeiras, set up by Gustavo Gómez, to make it 1-1. Arthur Santana (90') was sent off. Denilson Alves (85'), Arthur Santana (90') and Neto Moura (90') were booked. Carlos Eduardo scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Palmeiras 154 points stronger than Mirassol. Palmeiras are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Brasileirão Série A 2026.