A 54.1% / 23.9% / 21.9% split off ratings of 1437 and 1386. Neither side holds both halves — Chapecoense scores at 0.88, Grêmio concedes at 1.00.
A decisive result carries 76.0% against 23.9% for the draw. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -63 and -114. The two ratings differ by 51 points. In absolute terms: Grêmio 0.79/1.00, Chapecoense 0.88/1.27 on attack and defence. Its point estimate is 1-1. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. A 32.2-point range top to bottom. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on. Goal expectation splits 1.50 to 1.19. Expected shares 66.1% against 33.9% on Elo. Higher rating: the home side. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.1% leads, but only just. Logged in advance of kickoff — 60.8% / 22.3% / 16.9%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Grêmio holds a 30.2-point edge on the next outcome. The model's preferred outcome is Grêmio at 54.1%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 27 and 24 matches. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Grêmio beat Chapecoense 3-1 on 30 August 2026. Maurício Garcez opened the scoring inside the first 15 minutes for Chapecoense, set up by Giovanni Augusto, to make it 1-0. Gustavo Martins levelled it in the 18th minute for Grêmio to make it 1-1. Cristian Pavón put Grêmio in front in the 28th minute to make it 2-1. Gustavo Martins added to the tally 56 minutes into the game for Grêmio, set up by Cristian Pavón, to make it 3-1. Marlon (40'), Walter Kannemann (45'), Eduardo Doma (54'), Bruno Pacheco (71') and Tetê (90') were booked. Grêmio won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.