Rated 1541 and 1470, these two produce a 57.0% / 23.2% / 19.8% split. Honours split: 1.17 forward for Bahia, 0.97 back for Internacional.
On the Elo curve, expected shares run 68.6% to 31.4%. Final score: 3-2. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on. The two ratings differ by 71 points. Bahia carries the largest share, 57.0%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +41 and -30. The ratings draw on 26 and 26 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Its point estimate is 1-1. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 47.5% / 25.5% / 27.1%. It landed. Attack/defence pairs: 1.17/1.02 and 0.89/0.97. The model gives 76.8% to someone winning. Expected goals come out at 1.68 to 1.22. First to second is a 33.8-point step, Bahia over the draw. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.3%. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Spread across the three results is 37.2 points.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Bahia edged past Internacional 3-2 on 30 August 2026. Alan Patrick opened the scoring in the 16th minute for Internacional, set up by Thiago Maia, to make it 1-0. Erick levelled it in the 23rd minute for Bahia, set up by Nicolás Acevedo, to make it 1-1. Erick put Bahia in front in the 42nd minute, set up by Alejo Veliz, to make it 2-1. Erick added to the tally 49 minutes into the game for Bahia to make it 3-1. Vitinho pulled one back 52 minutes into the game for Internacional, set up by Alan Patrick, to make it 2-3. Alexandro Bernabei (39'), Cristian Olivera (39'), Guillermo Maripán (54'), Román Gómez (66'), Michel Araujo (72') and David Duarte (90') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Bahia are 71 points stronger than Internacional. On current ratings the model favours Bahia at 57% in this pairing, and Bahia won this one.