Rated 1538 and 1421, these two produce a 63.1% / 21.7% / 15.2% split. Neither component contradicts the other: Mineiro leads 1.03-0.79 forward and 0.86-1.20 back.
Scorelines above 8%: 4. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.83 and 0.92. Most likely single result is Mineiro on 63.1%. The tie closed out 2-1. The leading outcome clears the second by 41.4 points. The home side is rated higher. Rating separation comes to 117 points. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 59.3% / 22.7% / 18.0%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-0 highest at 11.7%. A decisive result carries 78.3% against 21.7% for the draw. They have met once on record — 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +38 and -79. Behind them are 26 and 26 rated matches. The three results cover 47.9 points. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-0. Mineiro's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 74.0%. The four component numbers read 1.03, 0.86, 0.79, 1.20.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Mineiro edged past Vitória 2-1 on 29 August 2026. Thiago Borbas opened the scoring in the 25th minute for Mineiro, set up by Reinier, to make it 1-0. Reinier added to the tally 63 minutes into the game for Mineiro to make it 2-0. Erick pulled one back late on, in the 87th minute for Vitória to make it 1-2. Diego Tarzia (35'), Ángelo Preciado (44') and Mamady Cissé (60') were booked. Erick scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Mineiro 117 points stronger than Vitória. On current ratings the model favours Mineiro at 63.1% in this pairing, and Mineiro won this one. Mineiro won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.