A 45.8% / 25.9% / 28.4% split off ratings of 1559 and 1563. The component ratings barely separate them — 1.15 and 1.16 for scoring, 0.99 and 1.00 for conceding — so the model is not leaning on a stylistic mismatch here.
Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 46.8% / 25.6% / 27.6%. The result went the other way. Win-or-lose totals 74.2%; the draw takes the rest. Expected shares on the Elo curve: 58.7% and 41.3%. In absolute terms: Paranaense 1.15/0.99, Fluminense 1.16/1.00 on attack and defence. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Rating separation comes to 4 points. As a single number the model says 1-1. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.2%. Paranaense carries the largest share, 45.8%. Paranaense holds a 17.4-point edge on the next outcome. They have met once on record — 2026, 2-3 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Between best and worst outcome there is 19.9 points of daylight. The away side is rated higher. The underlying goal expectation is 1.71 for Paranaense, 1.55 for Fluminense.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.