The draw carries unusual weight here, 26.1% against 29.1% and 44.8%.
The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on. Bahia carries the largest share, 44.8%. Versus the 1500 seed: -79 and +41. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 36.2% / 28.0% / 35.8%. The result went the other way. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Someone wins 73.9% of the time by this model. Result on the day: 0-2. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Both components point the same way, toward Bahia: 1.17 to 0.79 going forward, 1.02 to 1.20 going back. Raw profiles are 0.79 and 1.20 against 1.17 and 1.02. Elo expected shares: 42.2% and 57.8%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.4%. Expected goals sit at 1.19 against 1.89. The gap between first and second outcome is 15.7 points, Bahia ahead of Vitória. Behind them are 26 and 26 rated matches. Distance between the ratings: 120 points, wide on this scale. Higher rating: the away side. Outcomes span 18.7 points.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Bahia beat Vitória 2-0 on 23 August 2026. Alejo Veliz opened the scoring 67 minutes into the game for Bahia, set up by Erick, to make it 1-0. Jean Lucas added to the tally in the 97th minute for Bahia to make it 2-0. Matheuzinho (26'), Rodrigo Nestor (42'), Erick (78'), Jean Lucas (90') and Cacá (90') were booked. Jean Lucas scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Bahia 120 points stronger than Vitória. Bahia won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.