Santos holds both halves of the profile — 1.16 against 0.90 for scoring, 0.99 against 1.10 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. On rating it is 1536 against 1460, which the model resolves to 57.7% / 23.1% / 19.2%.
From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +36 and -40. Logged in advance of kickoff — 49.0% / 25.1% / 25.9%. The match did not follow it. Santos's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 69.2%. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Between best and worst outcome there is 38.5 points of daylight. First to second is a 34.6-point step, Santos over the draw. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Santos carries the largest share, 57.7%. In absolute terms: Santos 1.16/0.99, Mirassol 0.90/1.10 on attack and defence. Both figures rest on decent samples, 25 and 27 matches. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Ratings sit 76 apart. It ended 1-1. The home side is rated higher. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 10.3%. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 2-2 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Santos and Mirassol drew 1-1 on 23 August 2026. Carlos Eduardo opened the scoring in the 36th minute for Mirassol to make it 1-0. Álvaro Barreal levelled it 68 minutes into the game for Santos, set up by Neymar, to make it 1-1. Wallisson Luiz (73') was sent off. João Schmidt (20'), Gabriel Knesowitsch (22'), Neto Moura (24'), Igor Formiga (76') and Neymar (88') were booked. Carlos Eduardo scored after coming off the bench. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Santos are 76 points stronger than Mirassol. Santos's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in Brasileirão Série A 2026.