1614 plays 1474; the model splits it 66.1% / 20.8% / 13.1%. There is no trade-off to weigh: Palmeiras scores at the higher rate (1.09 to 1.02) and concedes at the lower (0.59 to 1.08).
The four component numbers read 1.09, 0.59, 1.02, 1.08. The match finished 4-1. Higher rating: the home side. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 69.5% / 19.8% / 10.7%. It landed. Both figures rest on decent samples, 27 and 26 matches. Palmeiras's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 76.5%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Top of the distribution: Palmeiras, 66.1%. A 53.0-point range top to bottom. A 45.3-point margin separates the top two outcomes. 1-0 leads the scorelines at 13.5% — not a strong call. Reduced to one result that is 1-0. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. They have met once on record — 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +114 and -26. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 140 points.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Palmeiras comfortably beat Vasco da Gama 4-1 on 23 August 2026. José Manuel López opened the scoring 47 minutes into the game for Palmeiras, set up by Allan, to make it 1-0. Vítor Roque added to the tally from the penalty spot 51 minutes into the game for Palmeiras to make it 2-0. Mauricio added to the tally 56 minutes into the game for Palmeiras, set up by Andreas Pereira, to make it 3-0. José Manuel López added to the tally late on, in the 89th minute for Palmeiras, set up by Jhon Arias, to make it 4-0. Facundo Colidio got one back in the 94th minute for Vasco da Gama, set up by Riquelme Avellar, to make it 1-4. Marlon Freitas (9'), Carlos Gómez (44'), Thiago Mendes (50') and Robert (83') were booked. Facundo Colidio scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Palmeiras 140 points stronger than Vasco da Gama. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings the model favours Palmeiras at 66.1% in this pairing, and Palmeiras won this one. On current ratings the model puts Palmeiras at around 1.76 goals in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Palmeiras are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Brasileirão Série A 2026. Palmeiras won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.