No separation at all — 35.7% / 27.9% / 36.4% across the three results.
A 8.5-point range covers every outcome here. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 42.1% / 26.7% / 31.2%. The match did not follow it. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Versus the 1500 seed: -30 and +38. The model's preferred outcome is Mineiro at 36.4%. Rating separation comes to 68 points. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The top two outcomes are within 0.7 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. Goal expectation splits 1.13 to 1.35. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 26 and 26 matches. They have met once on record — 2026, 0-1 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. Raw profiles are 0.89 and 0.97 against 1.03 and 0.86. Expected shares 49.6% against 50.4% on Elo. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Win-or-lose totals 72.1%; the draw takes the rest. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. The tie closed out 0-0. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 12.8%. Both components point the same way, toward Mineiro: 1.03 to 0.89 going forward, 0.86 to 0.97 going back.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Internacional and Mineiro could not be separated in a goalless draw on 22 August 2026. Bruno Gomes (49'), Fred (62'), Kauã Pascini (69'), Rodrigo Villagra (72'), Paulinho (90') and Gabriel Mercado (90') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Mineiro are 68 points stronger than Internacional.