1563 plays 1419; the model splits it 66.6% / 20.7% / 12.8%. Both components point the same way, toward Fluminense: 1.16 to 0.90 going forward, 1.00 to 1.17 going back.
First to second is a 45.9-point step, Fluminense over the draw. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +63 and -81. It ended 2-1. They have met once on record — 2026, 2-0 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. The model gives 79.4% to someone winning. The four component numbers read 1.16, 1.00, 0.90, 1.17. Most likely single result is Fluminense on 66.6%. Scorelines above 8%: 3. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 76.9% to 23.1%. Neither figure is thin: 27 and 27 matches respectively sit behind them. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-1. Rating separation comes to 144 points. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 56.2% / 23.4% / 20.3%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 9.7%. The xG line reads 2.01 to 1.22. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. The higher rating belongs to the home side.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Fluminense edged past Clube do Remo 2-1 on 22 August 2026. Jája Silva opened the scoring in the 31st minute for Clube do Remo, set up by Marcelinho, to make it 1-0. Hulk levelled it 66 minutes into the game for Fluminense, set up by Yeferson Soteldo, to make it 1-1. Kevin Serna put Fluminense in front late on, in the 83rd minute, set up by Riquelme Felipe, to make it 2-1. Hércules (4') and Yago Pikachu (81') were booked. Kevin Serna scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Fluminense 144 points stronger than Clube do Remo. On current ratings the model favours Fluminense at 66.6% in this pairing, and Fluminense won this one. Clube do Remo's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in Brasileirão Série A 2026.