Draw weight is the story: 27.0% of a 32.3% / 27.0% / 40.7% split.
Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +46 and +140. In absolute terms: Cruzeiro 1.17/0.99, Flamengo 1.35/0.67 on attack and defence. The away side is rated higher. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 34.1% / 27.5% / 38.4%. The result went the other way. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. Most likely single result is Flamengo on 40.7%. Expected shares 45.8% against 54.2% on Elo. The underlying goal expectation is 1.16 for Cruzeiro, 1.80 for Flamengo. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 27 and 27 rated matches respectively. A decisive result carries 73.0% against 27.0% for the draw. Neither component contradicts the other: Flamengo leads 1.35-1.17 forward and 0.67-0.99 back. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Rounded, that is 1-1. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 10.8% — not a strong call. A 94-point spread sits between the two figures. Outcomes span 13.7 points. The gap between first and second outcome is 8.4 points, Flamengo ahead of Cruzeiro.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Cruzeiro edged past Flamengo 2-1 on 22 August 2026. Pedro opened the scoring in the 22nd minute for Flamengo, set up by Giorgian De Arrascaeta, to make it 1-0. Keny Arroyo levelled it 55 minutes into the game for Cruzeiro, set up by Matheus Henrique, to make it 1-1. Matheus Pereira put Cruzeiro in front in the 95th minute, set up by Lucas Villalba, to make it 2-1. Fabrício Bruno (20'), João Marcelo (36'), Bruno Henrique (82') and Wesley Gassova (86') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Flamengo slightly the stronger side, by 94 rating points over Cruzeiro, even though it was Cruzeiro who won this one. Flamengo's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in Brasileirão Série A 2026. Cruzeiro won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.