Honours split: 1.02 forward for Coritiba, 0.99 back for Corinthians. On rating it is 1489 against 1446, which the model resolves to 52.9% / 24.2% / 22.9%.
52.9% goes to Coritiba, the model's lean. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Attack/defence pairs: 1.02/1.23 and 0.78/0.99. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 2-0 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. The higher rating expects 65.1% of the points, the lower 34.9%. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.8% — not a strong call. Neither figure is thin: 27 and 27 matches respectively sit behind them. The rating gap itself is 43 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Coritiba leads the distribution by 28.7 points over the draw. 75.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Versus the 1500 seed: -11 and -54. The match finished 2-1. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 42.8% / 26.5% / 30.7%. It landed. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Outcomes span 30.0 points. Expected goals sit at 1.51 against 1.30.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Coritiba edged past Corinthians 2-1 on 23 August 2026. Pedro Rocha opened the scoring in the 40th minute for Coritiba, set up by João Pedro Chermont, to make it 1-0. Paulo Roberto added to the tally 75 minutes into the game for Coritiba, set up by João Pedro Chermont, to make it 2-0. Raniele pulled one back in the 93rd minute for Corinthians, set up by Allan, to make it 1-2. Bidon (42'), Thiago Santos (42'), Matheus Pereira (67') and Vitor Gonçalves (67') were booked. Paulo Roberto scored after coming off the bench. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Coritiba are 43 points stronger than Corinthians. Corinthians's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive defeats in Brasileirão Série A 2026.