The stalemate carries 26.3% in a 29.8% / 26.3% / 43.9% distribution.
xG: 1.11 to 1.48. The three results cover 17.6 points. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -114 and 0. The split is one apiece: Chapecoense leads the attacking rate on 0.88, São Paulo the defensive on 0.85. 73.7% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The model's preferred outcome is São Paulo at 43.9%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.3%. Attack/defence pairs: 0.88/1.27 and 0.86/0.85. A 14.1-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The higher-rated side expects 57.0% of the points; the other side 43.0%. Point estimate: 1-1. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. The rating gap itself is 114 points, which is wide by the model's standards. The forecast we stored before the match was 29.4% / 26.1% / 44.5%. The match did not follow it. The away side is rated higher. Result on the day: 1-0. The ratings draw on 24 and 26 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Chapecoense edged past São Paulo 1-0 on 23 August 2026. Bruno Pacheco opened the scoring in the 26th minute for Chapecoense, set up by Giovanni Augusto, to make it 1-0. Marcinho (62'), Anderson (72'), Yago Felipe (73') and Camilo (88') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make São Paulo clearly the stronger side, by 114 rating points over Chapecoense, even though it was Chapecoense who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Chapecoense only a 29.8% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Chapecoense won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.