Neither component contradicts the other: Bragantino leads 0.94-0.79 forward and 0.93-1.00 back. On rating it is 1496 against 1437, which the model resolves to 55.3% / 23.7% / 21.0%.
Outcomes span 34.3 points. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -4 and -63. Win-or-lose totals 76.3%; the draw takes the rest. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 26 and 27 rated matches respectively. The higher rating expects 67.1% of the points, the lower 32.9%. Flat distribution — 1-0 tops it at just 12.7%. xG: 1.41 to 1.00. Rounded, that is 1-0. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Ratings sit 59 apart. The gap between first and second outcome is 31.6 points, Bragantino ahead of the draw. The tie closed out 1-0. Attack/defence pairs: 0.94/0.93 and 0.79/1.00. Most likely single result is Bragantino on 55.3%. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 51.4% / 24.6% / 24.0%. The result went the way that forecast pointed.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Bragantino edged past Grêmio 1-0 on 23 August 2026. Gustavo Marques opened the scoring in the 95th minute for Bragantino to make it 1-0. Juninho Capixaba (24'), Erick Noriega (45'), Ariel Sant'Anna (72'), Weverton (76') and Wallace (86') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Bragantino are 59 points stronger than Grêmio. On current ratings the model favours Bragantino at 55.3% in this pairing, and Bragantino won this one. Bragantino won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.