Neither win dominates this distribution — the draw takes 27.0% against 32.4% and 40.6%.
No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 10.2%. A decisive result carries 73.0% against 27.0% for the draw. Final score: 2-3. Before kickoff our model had this at 38.8% / 27.4% / 33.8%. The result went the other way. Distance between the ratings: 94 points, wide on this scale. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 1-4 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Behind them are 26 and 26 rated matches. Outcomes span 13.6 points. The higher-rated side expects 54.2% of the points; the other side 45.8%. On expected goals the model has it 1.43 against 1.79. A 8.2-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. The away side is rated higher. Most likely single result is Paranaense on 40.6%. Rounded, that is 1-1. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -35 and +59. Attack/defence pairs: 0.98/1.15 and 1.15/0.99. Paranaense is ahead on each half — 1.15 to 0.98 in attack, 0.99 to 1.15 in defence.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Paranaense edged past Botafogo 3-2 on 24 August 2026. João Victor opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for Paranaense, set up by Jádson, to make it 1-0. Kevin Viveros added to the tally inside the first 13 minutes for Paranaense, set up by Dantas, to make it 2-0. Kevin Viveros added to the tally 78 minutes into the game for Paranaense, set up by Kerwin Vargas, to make it 3-0. Santiago Rodríguez got one back late on, in the 85th minute for Botafogo, set up by Alex Telles, to make it 1-3. Santiago Rodríguez pulled one back in the 92nd minute for Botafogo, set up by Danilo, to make it 2-3. Kauan (35'), Edenilson (68') and Dantas (77') were booked. Santiago Rodríguez scored after coming off the bench. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Paranaense are 94 points stronger than Botafogo. 2 goals came after the 80th minute.