1421 against 1465 gives the model nothing to work with: 39.5% / 27.2% / 33.3%.
Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -79 and -35. A 12.3-point range top to bottom. They have met once on record — 2026, 0-0 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. Both components point the same way, toward Botafogo: 0.98 to 0.79 going forward, 1.15 to 1.20 going back. As a single number the model says 1-1. Expected goals sit at 1.35 against 1.58. Logged in advance of kickoff — 36.1% / 28.0% / 35.9%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Vitória holds a 6.2-point edge on the next outcome. With 26 and 26 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Raw profiles are 0.79 and 1.20 against 0.98 and 1.15. 44 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. Botafogo's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 47.0%. Someone wins 72.8% of the time by this model. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Vitória carries the largest share, 39.5%. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Vitória edged past Botafogo 1-0 on 16 August 2026. Matheuzinho opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 27th minute for Vitória to make it 1-0. Victor Hugo (2'), Alvaro Montoro (29'), Ramon (45'), Leandro Martínez (51') and Lucas Monzón (61') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Botafogo slightly the stronger side, by 44 rating points over Vitória, even though it was Vitória who won this one. Vitória won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.