Rated 1500 and 1489, these two produce a 48.2% / 25.3% / 26.5% split. One edge each: scoring to Coritiba (1.02 v 0.86), conceding to São Paulo (0.85 v 1.23).
3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The higher rating belongs to the home side. São Paulo sits 21.7 points above the next most likely result. With 26 and 27 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. In absolute terms: São Paulo 0.86/0.85, Coritiba 1.02/1.23 on attack and defence. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 60.8% to 39.2%. A decisive result carries 74.7% against 25.3% for the draw. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at 0 and -11. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. A 11-point difference on the rating scale. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.9%. The model's preferred outcome is São Paulo at 48.2%. Expected goals 1.57-1.18. It ended 1-1. The distribution runs from 48.2% down to 25.3%.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
São Paulo and Coritiba drew 1-1 on 16 August 2026. Pablo Maia opened the scoring in the 43rd minute for São Paulo, set up by João Victor, to make it 1-0. Tiago levelled it 57 minutes into the game for Coritiba, set up by Breno Lopes, to make it 1-1. Tiago (5'), Pablo Maia (41') and Lucas Ramon (68') were booked.