The rating gap is 180 points here, and the split follows at 22.1% / 24.0% / 53.8%.
Flamengo is ahead on each half — 1.35 to 0.90 in attack, 0.67 to 1.10 in defence. Flamengo leads the distribution by 29.8 points over the draw. Top of the distribution: Flamengo, 53.8%. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Most and least likely outcomes are 31.7 points apart. The model gives 75.9% to someone winning. Spread thin across outcomes, 0-1 highest at 11.1%. With 27 and 27 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Expected shares 34.0% against 66.0% on Elo. Rating separation comes to 180 points. Point estimate: 0-1. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 28.2% / 25.8% / 46.0%. It landed. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -40 and +140. Expected goals 0.90-1.99. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Attack/defence pairs: 0.90/1.10 and 1.35/0.67. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-BSA. The tie closed out 1-5.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Flamengo overwhelmed Mirassol 5-1 on 16 August 2026. Jorge Carrascal opened the scoring in the 22nd minute for Flamengo, set up by Gonzalo Plata, to make it 1-0. Luiz Araújo added to the tally 53 minutes into the game for Flamengo, set up by Jorge Carrascal, to make it 2-0. Pedro added to the tally 56 minutes into the game for Flamengo, set up by Ayrton Lucas, to make it 3-0. Pedro added to the tally 66 minutes into the game for Flamengo, set up by Jorge Carrascal, to make it 4-0. Samuel Lino added to the tally 74 minutes into the game for Flamengo, set up by Giorgian De Arrascaeta, to make it 5-0. João Victor got one back 77 minutes into the game for Mirassol, set up by Reinaldo, to make it 1-5. Denilson Alves (45'), Gustavo Cazonatti (51') and Neto Moura (85') were booked. Samuel Lino scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Flamengo 180 points stronger than Mirassol. On current ratings the model puts Flamengo at around 1.99 goals in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Flamengo's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in Brasileirão Série A 2026.