This is a genuine coin-flip by the model's reckoning — 38.2% / 27.5% / 34.3%, with nothing above 38.2%.
Logged in advance of kickoff — 31.7% / 26.8% / 41.5%. That one did not come off. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 12.4%. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-BSA. The match finished 3-2. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. One edge each: scoring to Fluminense (1.16 v 1.09), conceding to Palmeiras (0.59 v 1.00). A decisive result carries 72.5% against 27.5% for the draw. Raw profiles are 1.16 and 1.00 against 1.09 and 0.59. Ratings sit 51 apart. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +63 and +114. The higher rating belongs to the away side. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Only 3.9 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. 38.2% goes to Fluminense, the model's lean. The three outcomes sit within 10.7 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 27 and 27 rated matches respectively.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Fluminense edged past Palmeiras 3-2 on 15 August 2026. Gustavo Gómez opened the scoring inside the first 10 minutes for Palmeiras, set up by Joaquín Piquerez, to make it 1-0. Hulk levelled it in the 42nd minute for Fluminense, set up by Agustín Canobbio, to make it 1-1. Palmeiras regained the lead through Mauricio late on, in the 82nd minute, set up by José Manuel López, to make it 2-1. Kevin Serna levelled it late on, in the 85th minute for Fluminense to make it 2-2. Germán Cano put Fluminense in front in the 92nd minute, set up by Guga, to make it 3-2. 7 players were booked, among them Joaquín Piquerez (34'), Guga (61'), Agustín Canobbio (63'), Arthur Santana (73'), Luciano Acosta (78') and Nonato (86'). Mauricio, Kevin Serna and Germán Cano scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Palmeiras slightly the stronger side, by 51 rating points over Fluminense, even though it was Fluminense who won this one. 3 goals came after the 80th minute. Palmeiras are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Brasileirão Série A 2026. Fluminense won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.